Case 002: Real-Data Benchmark Fitting of Agricultural Sustainability Using WPO-ARSAM and FAO Public Data

Case 002：基于 FAO 公开数据的 WPO-ARSAM 真实数据拟合案例

Case 002A：A regional real-data demonstration using FAO SDG 2.4.1 status and trend indicators 

基于 FAO SDG 2.4.1 状态与趋势指标的区域真实数据拟合示范 

Conclusion

The conclusion can be stated as follows: in this real regional-data demonstration, the WPO-style Model B, which incorporates trend and dynamic variables, fits the data better than Model A, which only considers static current-status indicators.

This result supports the methodological direction of WPO-ARSAM: agricultural standardization assessment should not rely solely on whether a region has reached a static compliance or performance status at a given point in time. It should also incorporate trends, dynamic changes, resilience, residual auditing and multidimensional system variables.

Important Note

It should be noted that this case is a real-data fitting demonstration at the regional and special-group level. It is not a full country-level or farm-level FAOSTAT microdata fitting exercise.

The next stage can be upgraded to Case 002B: country-level FAOSTAT / UN SDG API data fitting.

结论：结论可以这样说：在这个真实区域数据示范中，加入趋势/动态变量后的 WPO-style Model B，比只看静态状态的 Model A 拟合更好。 这支持 WPO-ARSAM 的方法方向：农业标准化评估不能只看静态达标状态，还应加入趋势、韧性、残差审计和多维系统变量。

需要注意：这次是区域/特别组层面的真实数据拟合，不是国家级或农场级完整 FAOSTAT 微观数据拟合。下一步可以升级为 Case 002B：country-level FAOSTAT/UN SDG API 数据拟合。

Repro

复现

Case 002B：World Bank LSMS-ISA 

农户数据拟合 

Conclusion

In this real survey-derived data case, Model B clearly outperforms Model A. In other words, relying only on traditional production variables such as crop production, farmland size and fertilizer use has limited explanatory power for farmers’ agricultural income. After incorporating WPO-ARSAM whole-agriculture system variables, especially livestock participation and livestock assets, the explanatory power of the model improves significantly.

This result supports the core judgment of WPO-ARSAM:

Agricultural standardization assessment should not focus only on the production stage. It should also incorporate mixed agricultural assets, rural services, market access, farmers’ organizations, benefit distribution, system resilience and residual auditing.

Important Note

Case 002B is a real-data fitting case, but the unit of analysis is country-wave rural household indicator estimates, not individual household-level raw survey records. The LSMS-ISA harmonized panel v2.0 on Zenodo provides Household, Individual, Plot and Plotcrop DTA files, which can serve as the basis for a more rigorous household-level microdata replication in the next stage.

结论

在这个真实调查衍生数据案例中，Model B 明显优于 Model A。也就是说，只看作物生产、农地规模、化肥使用等传统生产变量，解释农户农业收入的能力有限；加入 WPO-ARSAM 的大农业系统变量，特别是畜牧参与和畜牧资产后，模型解释力明显提高。

这支持 WPO-ARSAM 的核心判断：

农业标准化评估不能只看生产环节，还应纳入混合农业资产、农村服务、市场连接、农民组织、收益分配、系统韧性和残差审计。

重要说明

这次 Case 002B 是真实数据拟合案例，但单位是 country-wave rural household indicator estimates，不是逐户原始调查记录。Zenodo 上的 LSMS-ISA harmonized panel v2.0 提供 Household、Individual、Plot、Plotcrop 等 DTA 数据文件，可作为后续更严格的逐户原始微观数据复现基础。

Repro

复现